Scott Dodds's blog

So we're trying to get this blog going again, I think. Whatever, I'm posting. Obama - I want to be for him. He seems to have the vision and the smarts. He claims to want a different kind of politics for our country. All good stuff, yes? But is it true? Unfortunately, there are many reasons to doubt that it is. Obama loves to vote along party lines - http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2007/03/national-journal-2006.html, and is the 10th most liberal member of the Senate (I've heard 11th before, but whatever, the point is clear). More specifically, he's starting to pander more toward old-fashioned liberal laws that may no longer be relevant, or of questionable value. Take, for example, the new law to bring union votes out into the open, away from secret ballots. A good call, allowing for more unionization in a time when lower-income wages are stagnant? Except that increased competition makes union bargaining less useful, the government now does much of what unions used to do, and open ballots might allow even more pressure on workers. Consider: http://www.slate.com/id/2161287/fr/flyout, http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8799125.

The Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group has recently come out with its report. In short, it says we've failed in Iraq by letting sectarian violence get out of control, and because the Shi'a and Kurdes haven't done enought to make the once-ruling Sunni minority feel swell too. It proposes pressuring the Iraqi government into progress along sectarian and security lines by threatening to withdraw military, economic, or political support if it does not meet set goals. Then it wants to take all but 15,000 troops out of Iraq by early 2008 anyway, thus avoiding the problems of a long-term occupation or the chaos of an immediate withdrawel.

Is the Republican policy of promoting Abstinence-only education the reason for declining teen pregnancy rates? A new study reveals, in fact, that its improved contraception education and availability that accounts for a whopping 86% of the decline. Hurting contraception hurts teens. ORLY? Ja really. http://www.economist.com/debate/freeexchange/2006/12/yes_i_know_you_knew_that_alrea.cfm

I will once again harp on the lack of a firm message in the Democratic Party. In 2006 we had a brilliant idea: change. What is change? What we make of it. How are we going to sell to voters this new deal? That's an important thing to figure out. Firstly, we need to start talking tougher when Republicans mess up. You're asking, didn't we flap our jowels enough during Katrina, Iraq, etc? Sure, but not always in an effective way. Example: Katrina wasn't just incompetence, it was a failure to govern on the part of the GOP. Here's an article that talks about framing ourselves in some new ways, including bringing a new "limit abortion" message to the forefront, which would help us a lot with social moderates.

Thankfully my predictions for the Senate held true and were even slightly under par for the House. We now have 28 of the governor's mansions, even if I was a bit dissapointed in the loss in Minnesota. But where are we going? Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid have a-heckuva-job cut out for them by Republican gaffs. The good news? We've got some good legislation and good ideas on raising the minimum wage, working with the president on immigration reform, and reforming ethics rules in congress. The bad news? The Democratic leadership seems warry of tackling our soon-to-be ridiculously costly welfare programs.

The House: Was Republicans 232 to Democrats 202. I'm thinking that the sides will about switch. I won't pick individual races here - but I will pick a random number out of the sky - Democrats regain control with 229. The Senate: This is going to be close; real close. Democrats will pick up at least 3 seats. Including independents, I'm going to go nuts and predict a final senate composition of Democrats - 49, Republicans - 49, Independents - 2. I'll call some close races and say why. Montana: Challenger Tester (Democrat) has been ahead of Republicans incumbent Conrad Burns the entire race. The race has tightened but I'm still predicting TESTERS WINS (D pickup)